XEL Xcel Energy Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
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XEL Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Utilities
Utilities - Regulated Electric
Current Price
Live
$75.61
Analyst Target
$86.88
+14.9%
Upside
52W High
$83.01
52W Low
$65.21
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 17, 2026
Market cap
$44.73B
P/E
23.05
ROE
9.4%
Profit margin
13.5%
Debt/Equity
1.68
Dividend yield
3.03%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
XEL's deterministic health score is stable with a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, indicating moderate financial health, but the absence of an Altman Z-Score limits distress risk assessment. The stock trades above its Graham Number of $51.41 at $75.61, reflecting a premium valuation, while forward P/E of 18.37 suggests some earnings recovery expectations. Despite solid sector-relative profitability and a 3.03% dividend yield, recent earnings volatility, weak quarterly beats (1 of last 4), and negative YoY earnings growth (-27.20%) raise concerns. Analysts maintain a 'buy' recommendation with a $86.88 target, implying 14.9% upside, but insider sentiment is neutral and technical trend is bearish, balancing the outlook.
Key Strengths
Stable Piotroski F-Score of 5 indicates baseline financial resilience
Above-average dividend yield of 3.03% with a manageable 68.83% payout ratio
Profitability margins (Gross 45.03%, Operating 26.62%) exceed sector averages
Analyst consensus supports upside with a $86.88 target price
Revenue growth of 7.40% YoY remains positive despite earnings headwinds
Key Risks
Earnings underperformance: only 1 beat in last 4 quarters with average -8.62% surprise
Significant YoY earnings decline of -27.20% despite revenue growth
Current Ratio (0.80) and Quick Ratio (0.48) indicate potential short-term liquidity pressure
High Debt/Equity ratio of 1.68, above sector average of 1.55, increasing leverage risk
Stock trades at a premium to Graham Number ($75.61 vs $51.41), implying limited margin of safety
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$58.5
-22.6% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
59
Moderate
50
58
62
56
70
AI Verdict
Moderately bullish with caution due to valuation and earnings volatility
Key drivers: Positive analyst target, Solid dividend profile, Premium valuation, Recent earnings misses, High leverage
Confidence
75%
Value
50/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 18.37 is reasonable for a utility with growth
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 23.05 is above sector average of 21.02
- Price trades 47% above Graham Number of $51.41
- No PEG ratio available limits growth-adjusted valuation
Future
58/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Forward P/E implies earnings recovery
- Revenue growth of 7.40% YoY is stable
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth YoY is -27.20%
- Q/Q Earnings Growth is -23.20%
- No clear inflection in earnings trajectory
Past
62/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 5-Year price return of +36.9% shows long-term appreciation
- Historical ROE near sector average at 9.45%
Watchpoints
- Frequent earnings misses in recent quarters
- Technical trend is bearish (0/100)
Health
56/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 5 indicates stable financial condition
Watchpoints
- No Altman Z-Score available limits distress risk analysis
- Debt/Equity of 1.68 is high for sector
- Current and Quick Ratios below 1.0 signal liquidity risk
Dividend
70/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 3.03% is attractive in current rate environment
- Payout ratio of 68.83% is sustainable for a regulated utility
Watchpoints
- Dividend Strength score is only 50/100
- No 5-year average yield data to assess consistency
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$75.61
Analyst Target
$86.88
Upside/Downside
+14.9%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for XEL and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-16
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
XEL
Xcel Energy Inc.
Primary
|
+36.9% | +17.9% | +17.9% | +9.1% | +4.2% | +1.8% |
|
EXC
Exelon Corporation
Peer
|
+74.8% | +15.9% | +17.8% | +4.9% | +1.1% | +3.3% |
|
D
Dominion Energy, Inc.
Peer
|
+7.3% | +13.6% | +16.3% | +7.6% | +1.7% | +5.4% |
|
SRE
Sempra
Peer
|
+78.7% | +26.0% | +13.8% | +20.0% | +6.7% | +4.2% |
|
AEE
Ameren Corporation
Peer
|
+57.8% | +30.0% | +12.9% | +3.7% | +2.5% | -1.6% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
23.05
Forward P/E
18.37
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.11
P/S Ratio
3.14
EV/Revenue
5.57
EV/EBITDA
13.92
Market Cap
$44.73B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
13.46%
Operating Margin
26.62%
Gross Margin
45.03%
ROE
9.45%
ROA
2.24%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+7.4%
Earnings Growth
-27.2%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-23.2%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.68
High debt
Current Ratio
0.8
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.48
Poor
Cash/Share
$1.79
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-05
$N/A
2025-10-30
$0.88
-33.5% surprise
2025-07-31
$0.75
+16.3% surprise
2025-04-24
$0.84
-8.6% surprise
Utilities Sector Comparison
Comparing XEL against 21 companies in the Utilities sector
(0 bullish, 18 neutral, 3 bearish)
P/E Ratio
23.05
This Stock
vs
24.3
Sector Avg
-5.1%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
9.45%
This Stock
vs
-7.2%
Sector Avg
-231.3%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
13.46%
This Stock
vs
10.62%
Sector Avg
+26.8%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
1.68
This Stock
vs
1.76
Sector Avg
-4.7%
(Lower)
Revenue Growth
7.4%
This Stock
vs
6.94%
Sector Avg
+6.6%
(Growing)
Current Ratio
0.8
This Stock
vs
0.88
Sector Avg
-9.4%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
XEL
Xcel Energy Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $44.73B | 23.05 | 9.4% | 13.5% | $75.61 | |
|
EXC
Exelon Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $45.18B | 16.03 | 10.3% | 11.6% | $44.73 | |
|
D
Dominion Energy, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $52.2B | 19.98 | 9.2% | 16.8% | $61.13 | |
|
SRE
Sempra
|
NEUTRAL | $60.41B | 28.48 | 6.8% | 15.8% | $92.55 | |
|
AEE
Ameren Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $27.68B | 19.79 | 11.4% | 16.3% | $102.32 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | BURKHART MEGAN D | Director | Stock Award | 644 | - |
| 2025-12-26 | WELSH TIMOTHY A | Director | Stock Award | 503 | - |
| 2025-12-26 | PARDEE CHARLES G | Director | Stock Award | 624 | - |
| 2025-12-26 | KAMPLING PATRICIA L | Director | Stock Award | 386 | - |
| 2025-12-26 | CASEY LYNN | Director | Stock Award | 544 | - |
| 2025-12-17 | HUTCHINSON MARIA DEMAREE | Director | Stock Award | 976 | - |
| 2025-12-16 | LAMB MICHAEL G. | Officer | Gift | 700 | - |
| 2025-12-09 | FRENZEL ROBERT C | Chief Executive Officer | Gift | 2,000 | - |
| 2025-11-21 | LONG RYAN J | Officer | Gift | 1,265 | - |
| 2025-09-26 | BURKHART MEGAN D | Director | Stock Award | 605 | - |
| 2025-09-26 | WELSH TIMOTHY A | Director | Stock Award | 473 | - |
| 2025-09-26 | PARDEE CHARLES G | Director | Stock Award | 586 | - |
| 2025-09-26 | KAMPLING PATRICIA L | Director | Stock Award | 363 | - |
| 2025-09-26 | CASEY LYNN | Director | Stock Award | 510 | - |
| 2025-09-04 | LAMB MICHAEL G. | Officer | Gift | 24,508 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
17 analysts
Barclays
2026-01-15
Overweight
Overweight
UBS
2025-12-17
Neutral
Neutral
Keybanc
2025-12-12
Overweight
Overweight
JP Morgan
2025-12-11
Overweight
Overweight
Barclays
2025-11-05
Overweight
Overweight
Citigroup
2025-11-03
Buy
Buy
UBS
2025-10-31
Neutral
Neutral
Mizuho
2025-10-27
Outperform
Outperform
Jefferies
2025-10-16
Buy
Buy
Keybanc
2025-10-15
Overweight
Overweight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning XEL from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.