Fragile Hormuz Ceasefire Faces Hurdles as Oil Tanker Traffic Remains Stalled

The first commercial vessels have begun transiting the Strait of Hormuz following a short-term ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran. However, the resumption of traffic is described as a slow trickle, with critical energy shipments remaining stalled. While bulk carriers such as the NJ Earth and Daytona Beach have successfully passed, oil tanker traffic has not recovered. This stagnation comes as reports surface that Iran intends to implement a cryptocurrency-based toll system for tankers and conduct rigorous weapons inspections on all passing vessels. These requirements, combined with a mandate for coordination with Iran's Armed Forces, have left many shipping executives in a holding pattern, citing a lack of direct communication with Tehran and concerns over crew safety. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for global energy, typically handling approximately 20% of the world's oil supply. Before the conflict, daily traffic averaged between 100 and 120 commercial vessels. Current levels remain a fraction of that volume, maintaining significant risk premiums in the energy markets. U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, maintain that the waterway is open. President Donald Trump has expressed confidence in the deal, suggesting the U.S. will assist in managing the traffic buildup to facilitate reconstruction. However, the stability of the ceasefire is further threatened by recent Israeli military actions in Lebanon, adding another layer of geopolitical risk to an already volatile maritime corridor.