Goldman Sachs Warns of $100 Brent Crude Amid Fragile US-Iran Truce

Goldman Sachs has issued a warning that Brent crude oil prices could average more than $100 per barrel through 2026, contingent on the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz for an additional month. The projection underscores the extreme sensitivity of global energy markets to disruptions in one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. The forecast comes as the United States and Iran observe a two-week ceasefire. However, the stability of this agreement is under scrutiny, with Vice President JD Vance describing the current truce as fragile, suggesting that a return to hostilities remains a distinct possibility. Analysts at the firm, including Daan Struyvens, noted that the geopolitical situation remains fluid. Because of the strategic importance of the Strait, the potential for a prolonged disruption creates a risk profile for oil prices that is heavily skewed to the upside. A sustained closure would severely restrict global oil supply, likely triggering a sharp rally in energy commodities and increasing inflationary pressures across global economies. Market participants are now closely monitoring the ceasefire's expiration to gauge the likelihood of a price surge.