U.S. and Iran Reach Last-Minute Ceasefire to Avert Regional Escalation

The United States and Iran have formally announced a ceasefire, ending a period of acute tension that threatened to spiral into a broader military conflict. The agreement was finalized on Tuesday evening, reaching a conclusion a mere 90 minutes before a deadline set by President Trump for the escalation of hostilities. This diplomatic resolution comes as a relief to global markets, which had been pricing in the risk of a direct confrontation in the Middle East. However, the long-term viability of the truce is under scrutiny because Israel was not consulted during the negotiation process, creating a significant diplomatic gap in the regional security framework. Critical sticking points remain unresolved, most notably whether the ceasefire applies to Israeli military actions in Lebanon. This ambiguity suggests that while the direct U.S.-Iran flashpoint has cooled, regional volatility may persist as other actors react to the deal. From a market perspective, the removal of an immediate war threat typically leads to a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium. This is expected to exert downward pressure on crude oil prices and safe-haven assets like gold, while providing a tailwind for global equity indices as uncertainty diminishes.