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Geopolitical Score 82 Bearish

Bay Street Braces for Jobs Data Amid Strait of Hormuz Blockade

Apr 10, 2026 12:27 UTC
^GSPTSE, CL=F, GC=F, SI=F
Immediate term

Canadian markets anticipate key employment figures while global investors monitor a severe shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on sentiment despite upcoming diplomatic efforts.

  • Strait of Hormuz traffic plummeted to 5% of normal daily volume
  • Canada's March employment and wage data are the primary domestic focus
  • WTI Crude remains elevated at $98.01 amid supply fears
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index settled at 33,477.71 following a 0.42% drop
  • Market sentiment hinges on upcoming U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks

The S&P/TSX Composite Index is expected to open on a mixed note Friday as investors balance domestic economic indicators against escalating geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Market attention is currently split between Canada's March employment data and average hourly wage reports, both scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET. This follows a weak Thursday session where the TSX Composite Index fell 142.86 points, or 0.42%, to close at 33,477.71. The decline was largely driven by renewed supply disruption concerns in the energy sector. The primary driver of volatility is the restriction of vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. Ship-tracking data reveals a drastic decline in activity, with only seven vessels passing through the strait in the last 24 hours, compared to a typical daily average of 140. This disruption, coupled with ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon, has kept global markets on edge despite a ceasefire agreement. In commodities trading, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude futures edged up to $98.01 a barrel. Conversely, precious metals saw declines, with gold falling 0.57% to $4,790.40 and silver dropping 0.85% to $75.790. Investors are now looking toward U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks this weekend for a potential resolution to the blockade. On the corporate front, Cogeco Cable reported second-quarter EPS of $1.96, up from $1.90 in the previous quarter. Richelieu Hardware also posted a slight increase in first-quarter EPS, rising to $0.26 from $0.25.

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