Bitcoin Analysis Forecasts $55,000 Floor by Late 2026

A new analysis from on-chain platform CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) has not yet reached its cyclical bottom, projecting a price floor between $55,000 and $60,000 by the end of 2026. The report describes the current bear market bottoming process as a 'marathon of exhaustion.' The prediction relies heavily on the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-score, a metric that compares the current market cap to the realized cap—the price at which the BTC supply last moved. Historically, a sub-zero Z-score has signaled the definitive bottom of bear markets, a threshold the asset has yet to cross in the current cycle. According to the analysis, while the valuation metric is cooling, it has not yet entered the negative or undervalued zone. This suggests that history may 'rhyme' between October and December 2026, coinciding with the projected price target of $55,000 to $60,000. Looking further ahead, the model anticipates a two-year accumulation phase following the 2026 bottom, potentially leading to a 'blow-off top' in the second half of 2029. While some market participants, including trader Michaël van de Poppe, have suggested the macro drawdown is nearing its end, the CryptoQuant data points to a more extended period of correction before a sustainable rebound.