White House Issues Insider Trading Warning Following Suspicious Iran War Bets

The White House has formally warned its staff against placing bets on prediction markets related to the conflict with Iran, according to an administration official. The directive, issued via email on March 24, comes as scrutiny grows over potential insider trading within the executive branch. The warning followed a series of highly suspicious trading patterns on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. The administration noted irregular activity surrounding the pause in hostilities with Iran as well as the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro earlier this year. Market data indicates a massive spike in activity just before President Trump announced a pause in attacks via Truth Social on March 23. In the 15-minute window preceding the post, more than $500 million in crude oil futures trades were executed, raising alarms about the leakage of nonpublic information. Representative Ritchie Torres has urged the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to investigate the trades, arguing that the timing makes insider trading the only plausible explanation. In response to the controversy, both Kalshi and Polymarket have announced stricter rules to prevent insider trading on their platforms. White House spokesman Davis Ingle stated that all federal employees are prohibited from trading on inside information, dismissing claims of official misconduct as baseless while emphasizing the President's desire for a fair and profitable market for all participants.