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Commodities Score 38 Bearish

US Natural Gas Futures Retreat Amid Mild Weather Outlook and Surplus Storage

Apr 13, 2026 13:48 UTC
NG=F
Short term

Natural gas prices have declined for a fourth straight session as favorable weather forecasts and high inventory levels weigh on the market. Despite temporary gains linked to geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf, fundamental supply-demand dynamics remain the primary driver.

  • Fourth consecutive session of losses for US gas contracts
  • Storage levels remain above the five-year average
  • Mild weather forecasts reducing demand expectations
  • Temporary price spike linked to Persian Gulf energy flow risks
  • Decoupling of natural gas from broader energy market volatility

US natural gas futures closed lower for the fourth consecutive trading session, erasing early gains as market participants shifted focus toward bearish fundamental indicators. The downward pressure is primarily attributed to forecasts of mild weather, which typically reduces heating demand, alongside domestic stockpiles that remain elevated compared to the five-year average. Earlier in the session, prices saw a brief uptick during Asian trading and the US morning. This movement was driven by rising oil prices, as renewed geopolitical risks surrounding energy flows in the Persian Gulf prompted investors to increase exposure to broad energy baskets. However, the correlation between natural gas and the broader energy complex has weakened. Market analysts suggest that natural gas has decoupled from the volatility seen in oil, as the market remains tethered to domestic storage levels and temperature forecasts. Darrell Fletcher, managing director for commodities at Bannockburn Capital Markets, noted that while other energy products reacted to geopolitical strife, natural gas fundamentals continued to dictate price action, leading to the current bearish trend.

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