Bernstein Argues Bitcoin’s Recent Drawdown Has Priced In Quantum Computing Risks

Bernstein has stated that the recent selloff in Bitcoin, which saw the asset drop nearly 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198, has effectively priced in the risks associated with quantum computing. While acknowledging the threat is real, the firm argues it is a manageable challenge rather than an immediate existential crisis, noting that progress in zero-knowledge privacy and quantum-proof cryptography helps counterbalance the acceleration of AI and quantum capabilities. This assessment follows research from Google suggesting that future quantum computers could potentially compromise elliptic-curve cryptography using fewer than 500,000 physical qubits. In theoretical scenarios, such a machine could crack a Bitcoin private key in nine minutes—a timeframe shorter than the network's average 10-minute block production time. To mitigate these risks, the community is discussing the BIP-360 proposal, which introduces a Pay-to-Merkle-Root output type to reduce long-exposure vulnerabilities. Bernstein notes that while a soft fork could implement this, approximately 8% of the BTC supply held in inactive addresses would remain exposed to future breakthroughs. Industry experts suggest the primary hurdle is social rather than technical. While the code for quantum-proofing could be developed rapidly, migrating the global user base to new standards would likely take years. Bernstein expects institutional holders, including ETF issuers and corporate treasuries, to be pivotal in reaching a consensus on the upgrade path over the next three to five years.