India's Energy Security Under Siege as U.S. Blockade and Russian Oil Waiver Lapse Converge

India is grappling with a severe energy supply squeeze as the United States implements a blockade of Iranian ports and allows a critical waiver for Russian oil imports to expire. The convergence of these two geopolitical moves has left the world's third-largest oil importer highly vulnerable to supply shocks. The U.S. began blocking shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday to pressure Tehran after the collapse of peace negotiations. This move disrupts a vital artery for Indian energy, coming just as a U.S. waiver permitting the purchase of Russian crude lapsed on April 11, removing another essential source of supply. India relies on imports for over 85% of its crude oil requirements, averaging 5.5 million barrels per day. Analysts estimate that India has already lost approximately 3 million barrels per day that previously transited the Strait of Hormuz. This puts New Delhi in a precarious position compared to peers like China; while China maintains reserves for 300 days, India holds roughly 160 million barrels, providing a buffer of only about 30 days. The energy crisis is already manifesting in macroeconomic indicators. The HSBC flash Purchasing Managers' Index showed private sector activity in March hit its lowest level since October 2022. Furthermore, the finance ministry warned that the projected growth rate of 7.0%–7.4% for the year ending March 2027 faces considerable downside risks due to rising costs and supply chain instability. The situation highlights New Delhi's struggle to maintain strategic autonomy while adhering to Washington's expectations. After previously reducing Russian imports to secure a U.S. trade deal, India was forced back toward Russian crude as Middle Eastern supplies failed, only to see the U.S. waiver expire this month.