Historical Data Points to Equity Upside Under Trump Administration's Pro-Growth Policies

Historical analysis from U.S. Bank indicates that the S&P 500 achieved a total return of 81.3% during Donald Trump's first term from 2017 to 2021, ranking it as the fourth-best four-year presidential term since 1980. On a price basis, the index rose 67.82% during this period, despite temporary corrections caused by trade tensions and the 2020 pandemic. The primary catalyst for these gains was the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which slashed the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. This policy shift increased corporate liquidity, fueling higher profits and expanded share buybacks. Current market conditions show echoes of this resilience, with the S&P 500 posting a 17.9% total return in 2025 and remaining nearly flat year-to-date through early April 2026. Specific equities have historically outperformed under these conditions. Apple (AAPL) saw a total return of 402% during the first term, supported by a 2019 net income of $55.3 billion on $260.2 billion in revenue. Similarly, Caterpillar (CAT) benefited from infrastructure support and easier permitting, returning over 154% between 2016 and January 2021. In 2019 alone, Caterpillar reported $54.7 billion in revenue. As the current administration implements the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act,' analysts suggest that focusing on earnings and fundamentals remains the most effective strategy. While risks such as inflation and tariffs persist, the historical precedent suggests that pro-growth execution can effectively offset short-term policy friction.