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Geopolitical Score 98 Bullish

Global Oil Supply Shaken as Strait of Hormuz Near-Shutdown Slashes OPEC Output

Apr 13, 2026 14:36 UTC
CL=F, BZ=F, XLE, GC=F
Immediate term

OPEC reports a massive decline in crude production following regional conflict in the Middle East. The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely restricted export capabilities.

  • March production plunged by 7.89 million bbl/day
  • Current OPEC output stands at 20.79 million bbl/day
  • Strait of Hormuz near-shutdown is the primary driver
  • Shipping disruptions creating persistent supply flow concerns
  • Extreme volatility expected in crude oil futures

OPEC announced on Monday that crude oil production experienced a precipitous drop in March, falling by 7.89 million barrels per day. This brings total production down to 20.79 million barrels per day, marking one of the most significant monthly declines in the organization's history. The collapse in output is directly attributed to the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which has led to a near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. As one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, any disruption in this corridor creates immediate systemic risk for global energy security and price stability. According to the organization, disruptions to shipping operations in the region have raised persistent concerns regarding the stability of regional supply flows. The inability to safely navigate exports through the Strait has effectively choked the flow of crude to international markets. A supply shock of this magnitude is expected to trigger extreme volatility across global energy benchmarks. Market participants are now pricing in a severe deficit as the world grapples with the loss of nearly 8 million barrels of daily production from OPEC member states.

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