Bernstein Forecasts Prediction Markets to Hit $1 Trillion Volume by 2030

Prediction markets are transitioning from niche wagering platforms into sophisticated global information markets. According to a new report from Bernstein, total volumes in the sector are projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, implying a compound annual growth rate of approximately 80% from 2026 levels. The sector recorded volumes of $51 billion last year and is on track to reach $240 billion by 2026. This acceleration is being fueled by increasing federal regulatory clarity in the U.S. and the adoption of blockchain-based tokenization, which facilitates global liquidity and allows for greater institutional participation in hedging event-driven risks. While sports currently dominate the landscape—accounting for 62% of total volumes—analysts expect this share to decline to roughly 31% by 2030. This shift will likely be driven by increased traction in crypto-linked contracts, political events, and macroeconomic indicators. Consequently, industry revenues are forecasted to climb from $400 million in 2025 to $10.8 billion by the end of the decade. Bernstein identifies distribution as the critical competitive moat in this evolving space. Robinhood (HOOD) has already established a $350 million annualized revenue run rate from prediction markets, while Coinbase (COIN) has expanded its footprint via Kalshi. Based on these growth trajectories, Bernstein maintains an 'outperform' rating on both companies.