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Geopolitical Score 88 Bullish

US Equities Hit Record Highs as Geopolitical Optimism Offsets Hormuz Blockade

Apr 15, 2026 14:34 UTC
SPX, IXIC, DJI, CL=F
Short term

Major US indices have erased losses from the Iran conflict, driven by a fragile ceasefire and positive earnings forecasts. Despite the rally, systemic risks remain high following the announcement of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq have recovered all losses tied to the Iran war
  • S&P 500 rose 10% across the last 10 trading sessions
  • Nasdaq is currently less than 1% away from its October record high
  • Oil prices remain a risk factor, trading above $90 per barrel
  • US has announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
  • Market recovery is supported by positive corporate earnings forecasts

US equity markets have staged a powerful V-shaped recovery, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq effectively erasing losses triggered by the outbreak of war with Iran in late February. The S&P 500 is currently trending toward a fresh record high, marking a significant reversal from a period just weeks ago when the index had fallen roughly 9% from its January peak. The current rally is primarily fueled by investor optimism surrounding a fragile ceasefire and a slight moderation in oil prices. Additionally, the onset of earnings season has provided a fundamental tailwind, as investors express enthusiasm regarding corporate profit forecasts. Quantitative data highlights the scale of the rebound: the S&P 500 has gained 10% over the last ten trading sessions. The Nasdaq has surged more than 10% since its late-March correction and is now within 1% of its October record. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen approximately 5% this month, though it remains down 1% since the conflict began. Despite the bullish price action, market technicians warn that the recovery may be built on hope rather than stability. Crude oil continues to trade above $90 per barrel, and geopolitical risk remains acute. The recent announcement by President Donald Trump regarding a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with a lack of agreement during talks in Islamabad, suggests that volatility could return rapidly if the ceasefire fails.

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