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Macro Score 42 Bullish

US Futures Edge Higher as Markets Anticipate Jackson Hole Guidance

Apr 16, 2026 12:55 UTC
SPX, IXIC, DJI, CL=F, GC=F
Immediate term

Wall Street indices are poised for a modest gain as investors weigh Federal Reserve minutes and prepare for Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech. Market sentiment remains positive on the prospect of a September rate cut.

  • S&P 500 futures pointing to a 0.2% higher open
  • Fed minutes suggest a 'vast majority' favor a rate cut next month
  • CME FedWatch Tool shows 71.5% chance of a 25bps cut
  • Initial jobless claims rose to 232,000, slightly above expectations
  • Market awaiting Chair Powell's Friday speech at Jackson Hole

US equity futures indicated a positive start for Thursday's session, with S&P 500 futures rising 0.2%. This momentum follows a string of gains, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closing higher in nine of the last ten sessions. The Nasdaq recently climbed 0.6% to 17,918.99, while the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 5,620.85. The prevailing optimism is driven by the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes, which suggest a broad consensus among policymakers that a rate reduction would be appropriate at the next meeting, provided inflation data remains aligned with expectations. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 71.5% probability of a 25-basis-point cut next month, while a 28.5% chance remains for a more aggressive 50-basis-point reduction. Attention now shifts to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday, and traders are looking for further clarity regarding the central bank's policy trajectory. Trading activity may remain subdued until these remarks are delivered. In early economic reports, initial jobless claims saw a slight uptick to 232,000 for the week ending August 17, slightly exceeding the 230,000 forecast. Additionally, the market is awaiting July existing home sales data, with expectations of a recovery to an annual rate of 3.93 million. Global markets mirrored the positive sentiment, with the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng rising 0.7% and 1.4%, respectively. In commodities, crude oil futures edged up to $72.04 per barrel, while gold futures declined to $2,536.90 per ounce.

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