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Geopolitical Score 88 Bearish

Trump Signals Optimism on Iran Deal Amid Conflicting Reports on Strait of Hormuz

Apr 18, 2026 09:02 UTC
CL=F, BZ=F, XOP, LMT, RTX
Immediate term

President Trump claims progress in nuclear negotiations with Iran while maintaining a naval blockade. However, Iranian officials and shipping data suggest the critical Strait of Hormuz remains closed to commercial traffic.

  • Trump reports 'good news' and ongoing weekend negotiations with Iran
  • Proposed deal includes joint recovery of 100% of Iranian nuclear material
  • Iranian officials claim the Strait of Hormuz is closed due to U.S. non-compliance
  • Kpler shipping data confirms vessels are turning back from the waterway
  • U.S. naval blockade remains in force; ceasefire expires Wednesday
  • Potential for renewed U.S. bombing campaigns if agreement is not reached

President Donald Trump expressed optimism regarding ongoing peace talks with Iran, stating that negotiations will continue through the weekend. The U.S. President indicated that a potential agreement would include the joint recovery of nuclear materials from Iran, which would then be transported to the United States after the signing of a formal deal. The diplomatic push follows a failed round of talks in Islamabad between a U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance and Iranian representatives. While Trump highlighted 'good news' regarding the Middle East, the geopolitical situation remains fragile, with a current ceasefire set to expire this coming Wednesday. Significant contradictions have emerged regarding the status of the Strait of Hormuz. While Trump claimed the waterway was 'fully open and ready for business,' Iranian state media and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf asserted that the strait is closed due to the U.S. failure to meet its obligations. This claim is supported by ship-tracking data from Kpler, which shows tankers and cargo ships turning back after failing to receive passage approval. The U.S. maintains a naval blockade of Iranian ports, which Trump stated will remain in effect regardless of whether the ceasefire is extended. The threat of renewed aerial campaigns, which originally began on February 28, continues to loom over the region. The instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a primary artery for global energy shipments, poses a significant risk to oil price stability and global shipping logistics.

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