Bitcoin's Diminishing Returns: Analyst Warns of Weakening Halving Cycles

Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, reports that the current Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is "dramatically" weaker than its predecessors. Comparing the period since the April 2024 halving to the 2012, 2016, and 2020 cycles, Thorn notes a marked decline in both volatility and peak price gains. Historically, Bitcoin halvings triggered explosive growth. The 2012 cycle saw a price surge of approximately 9,294%, followed by 2,950% in 2016 and 761% in 2020. In contrast, the current cycle's all-time high of over $125,000 reached on October 5, 2025, represents only a 97% increase over the halving price of roughly $63,000. This trend extends to volatility metrics. The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index, which once hit 9.64% in April 2020, has remained below 3.11% in the current cycle, recently sitting at 1.75%. Fidelity Digital Assets also observed that drawdowns have become less severe; while previous bear markets saw 80% to 90% declines, the recent drop from $125,000 to $60,000 was just over 50%. Some analysts argue that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 skewed the cycle by pushing BTC to new highs in March, before the actual halving occurred. As the asset matures, it appears to be decoupling from the four-year cycle theory, becoming more sensitive to institutional catalysts and macroeconomic factors. Despite the dampened volatility, some asset managers, including VanEck CEO Jan van Eck, expect prices to begin rising gradually again in 2026.