ECB Official Warns of Lagging Economic Impact from Iran Conflict

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Alvaro Santos Pereira has cautioned that the economic repercussions of the ongoing conflict involving Iran have not yet fully materialized within the euro-zone. According to Pereira, the crisis is still too recent for its comprehensive impact to be captured in current economic indicators. Speaking in a recent interview, the Portuguese official stressed that the ECB must maintain a vigilant stance. He argued that the central bank should focus heavily on incoming data and remain prepared to intervene if there are signs that prices are spiraling out of control, highlighting the risk of secondary inflationary shocks. Pereira noted that the euro-zone entered this period of instability from a position of relative resilience, with economic growth estimated at approximately 1% prior to the outbreak of the crisis. However, the lag in data means this resilience may be misleading in the short term. From a market perspective, the warning suggests that the ECB may be forced into a more hawkish posture if geopolitical tensions translate into sustained price increases. Traders are likely to monitor energy costs and supply chain disruptions as primary catalysts for the 'price spirals' Pereira fears.