US 10-Year Treasury Yield Dips Below 4% Amid Rate Cut Optimism

US Treasuries ended Wednesday's session largely unchanged after an initial sell-off, as investors balanced robust economic indicators against a dovish outlook from Federal Reserve officials. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield closed at 3.998%, marking the first time the yield has settled below the 4% psychological level since late October. The session saw an early pullback likely driven by profit-taking, as the 10-year yield had closed lower in six of the previous seven sessions. However, selling pressure waned as traders continued to price in a more accommodative monetary policy following recent comments from Fed officials. Market sentiment remains heavily skewed toward easing. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a quarter-point rate reduction next month has surged to 82.9%, a significant increase from 30.1% just one week prior. This optimism persists despite upbeat domestic data. The Commerce Department reported that September durable goods orders rose 0.5%, exceeding the 0.3% forecast. Additionally, the Labor Department noted that initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 216,000 for the week ending November 22, the lowest level since April 12. With the Thanksgiving holiday approaching, market participants expect subdued trading activity through Friday, as the calendar lacks major economic catalysts to shift the current trajectory.