American Express Q1 Earnings to Signal Health of Affluent US Consumer

American Express (NYSE: AXP) will release its first-quarter 2026 financial results this Thursday, serving as a key barometer for the resilience of the U.S. affluent consumer. As the company reports, analysts will closely monitor whether high-net-worth shoppers are maintaining their spending levels or beginning to pull back. The company has successfully pivoted toward a high-fee, premium membership model, which has become a structural driver of its earnings. This strategy is particularly evident in the growth of younger demographics; in the fourth quarter of 2025, U.S. consumer services billed business from Gen Z rose 38% year-over-year, while Millennial spending increased by 12%. Financial metrics from the end of 2025 show a resilient foundation, with total billed business reaching approximately $445 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase. Net card fee revenue also surged 17% to $2.6 billion. However, this growth has come at a cost, with the company investing $6.3 billion in marketing expenses throughout 2025 to acquire new members. Despite a year-to-date share price decline of roughly 11%, management remains optimistic. The company has guided for 2026 revenue growth of 9% to 10% and full-year earnings per share between $17.30 and $17.90. Investors will, however, be watching for any acceleration in credit stress, as the net write-off rate ticked up to 2.1% in the final quarter of 2025.