Global Markets Brace for Volatility as US-Iran Ceasefire Nears Expiration

Global financial markets are experiencing heightened volatility as a critical 48-hour window closes on the current ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The uncertainty has triggered a sharp rally in energy prices, with US benchmark crude rising 8.5% from recent lows to approximately $86.3 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed 9.5% to roughly $94.5 per barrel. US officials, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser Jared Kushner, have traveled to Islamabad in an attempt to broker a diplomatic resolution. While President Donald Trump has expressed confidence in a "historic deal" that would surpass the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iranian leadership remains skeptical. Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf recently signaled a hardline stance, stating that Tehran will not negotiate under the "shadow of threats" and has prepared "new cards on the battlefield." This contradicts the optimistic outlook from the US administration, leaving the status of the Strait of Hormuz—which remains closed—as a primary concern for global trade. While energy markets are reacting sharply, equity markets have remained relatively stagnant. The S&P 500 closed marginally lower at 7109 points, and European indices, including the Euro Stoxx 50 and FTSE 100, traded within a narrow 0.3% range. Amidst the geopolitical tension, Associated British Foods (ABF) is reviewing a potential demerger of its Primark retail arm from its food business to maximize shareholder value. The conglomerate is facing tough trading conditions, further pressured by rising costs and the fallout from the Iran conflict, specifically regarding petrochemical prices.