Tesla's Valuation Pivot: Robotaxis Projected to Drive Nearly 30% of Gross Profit by 2029

Tesla's investment thesis is shifting from electric vehicle (EV) volume to the scalability of its autonomous ride-hailing network. While current valuations remain high—approximately 200 times 2025 earnings expectations—investors are betting on the 'Cybercab' and Full Self-Driving (FSD) software to fundamentally disrupt the transportation market. According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence (Visible Alpha), analyst consensus expects Tesla's gross profit to grow from $17.1 billion in 2025 to $29.1 billion by 2028, representing a compound annual growth rate of 19.4%. The core of this growth is expected to come from the transition to autonomous services. The impact of robotaxis is projected to accelerate sharply. While they are expected to contribute just over $2 billion, or 6.9%, of gross profit in 2028, that figure is forecasted to jump to $12 billion by 2029. This would account for nearly 29% of the company's total projected $41.7 billion gross profit for that year. The bullish outlook relies on achieving an operational cost per mile as low as $0.20 and a vehicle price point under $30,000 for the dedicated robotaxi. Because the robotaxi business is expected to command higher margins than the automotive or energy storage segments, it serves as the primary justification for the stock's current premium. However, significant downside risk remains if the rollout fails to meet these aggressive targets.