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Geopolitical Score 88 Bearish

Eurozone Slips into Contraction as Iran Conflict Drives Up Business Costs

Apr 23, 2026 12:14 UTC
EUR=X, GBP=X, CL=F, EU
Short term

The euro area's Composite PMI has fallen below the growth threshold, signaling an economic contraction driven by the ongoing conflict in Iran. JPMorgan strategists warn that rising business costs and supply chain pressures are now impacting both European and UK markets.

  • Euro area Composite PMI dropped to 48.6 from 50.7
  • Services sector decline attributed to Iran war's impact on consumers
  • UK private sector rebounding but facing severe supply chain pressures
  • JPMorgan strategist Hugh Gimber reports sharply rising business costs

Economic activity in the euro area has unexpectedly contracted for the first time since late 2024, as the geopolitical fallout from the war in Iran weighs heavily on consumer spending and service sector performance. According to the latest Composite PMI data from S&P Global, the index dropped to 48.6 in April, down from 50.7 in the previous month. This dip below the critical 50.0 threshold indicates a shift from expansion to contraction, highlighting the fragility of the region's recovery amidst escalating global tensions. In the United Kingdom, the private sector showed a quicker recovery from the initial shock of the conflict. However, this rebound is characterized by frantic efforts by firms to secure essential supplies, which is contributing to mounting price pressures across the board. Hugh Gimber, Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan, noted that business costs are currently 'rising sharply.' The combination of shrinking demand in the euro area and surging input costs in the UK suggests a challenging inflationary environment that could complicate central bank policy decisions.

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