Goldman Sachs Warns of Record-Low Global Oil Inventories Amid Hormuz Bottlenecks

Goldman Sachs has signaled a potential supply crunch in the global energy market, forecasting that visible oil inventories are on a trajectory to hit their lowest level in history. This projection suggests a tightening of the global crude balance that could leave markets highly sensitive to further disruptions. Daan Struyven, the firm's global commodities research co-head, attributed this trend to intensifying bottlenecks and supply chain logistics issues. Specifically, the firm is monitoring the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint for global crude shipments, where logistical frictions are hindering the efficient movement of oil. The erosion of available stocks implies that the global market is losing its primary buffer against supply shocks. According to Struyven, these logistical constraints create substantial upside risks to current price forecasts, as the lack of inventory makes it difficult for the market to absorb any sudden production outages. From a trading perspective, the focus now shifts to the stability of the Strait of Hormuz. With inventories at record lows, any escalation in regional tensions or further logistical failures could trigger rapid price appreciation in crude futures, as there is little surplus capacity to mitigate immediate shortages.