Bitcoin Struggles to Breach $80,000 as Technical Support Levels Loom

Bitcoin (BTC) retreated from near three-month highs on Thursday, failing to sustain a push toward the $80,000 psychological threshold. The asset dipped to $77,200 prior to the U.S. market open, after having reached $79,500 the previous day, marking its highest level since late January. Traders are now focused on the weekly candle close, specifically whether BTC can reclaim the 'bull market support band'—a technical indicator formed by the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) and the 20-week simple moving average (SMA). This level has remained elusive since the asset's last all-time high, and the 21-week EMA has proven difficult to flip into support. On the macro front, volatility remains muted despite ongoing tensions in the US-Iran conflict. Market attention is shifting toward upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data and the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate change at the next meeting is nearly zero, with easing unlikely until late 2027 due to persistent inflation risks. Analysts from QCP Capital suggest that the clearest indicators for the market moving forward are oil prices and central bank policy. Specifically, oil prices dropping below $100 would support a relief case for risk assets, while clearer signaling from the Federal Reserve would help compress the current policy premium.