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SpaceX IPO Outlook: Valuation Concerns and the RocketLab Alternative

Apr 23, 2026 17:05 UTC
RKLB
Medium term

SpaceX is preparing for a historic public debut with a target valuation of $1.75 trillion. Investors are weighing the risks of this massive entry against the growth potential of already-public competitor RocketLab.

  • SpaceX target valuation of $1.75 trillion for June IPO
  • Retail investor allocation set at an unusually high 30%
  • SpaceX revenue growth decelerated to 18% in 2025
  • AI investments contributed to a $5 billion loss for SpaceX in 2025
  • RocketLab (RKLB) remains a pure-play alternative with a $49B market cap
  • RocketLab's high P/S ratio of 74 creates risk of a sell-off if Neutron launch is delayed

SpaceX is reportedly coordinating with bankers for a public offering in June, aiming for a target valuation of $1.75 trillion. If realized, this would be the largest IPO in history. Notably, the company intends to allocate 30% of shares to retail investors, a significant increase over the standard 5% to 10% range, though analysts warn this could lead to meme-stock volatility. Despite the hype, fundamental growth indicators suggest the company may be maturing. Revenue growth, which stood at 89% in 2023 and 51% in 2024, slowed to 18% in 2025. Additionally, a strategic pivot toward generative AI has introduced financial headwinds; following a $250 billion acquisition of xAI, SpaceX reportedly incurred a $5 billion loss in 2025 due to unprofitable AI-related spending. For investors seeking exposure to the space sector without the AI-related risks of SpaceX, RocketLab (RKLB) offers a public alternative. With a market capitalization of $49 billion, the company focuses on low Earth orbit payloads and is preparing to scale operations with the launch of its higher-capacity Neutron rocket later this year. However, RocketLab is not without its own risks. The stock currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 74, suggesting that much of its future success is already priced in. Any technical delays regarding the Neutron launch could lead to a sharp market correction for the shares.

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