AI-Driven NAND Shortage Propels Sandisk Earnings Outlook

Sandisk (SNDK) is experiencing rapid growth as the artificial intelligence boom shifts storage demand from traditional hard-disk drives to high-performance enterprise solid-state drives (SSDs). This transition is creating a severe supply-demand imbalance in the NAND flash memory market, benefiting manufacturers capable of meeting the surge. The shift is creating a severe supply-demand imbalance. According to Gartner, NAND prices are projected to spike by 234% this year, mirroring a 246% increase seen in 2025. This trend is further validated by Kioxia, which reported that its 2026 supply is already exhausted and expects similar results for 2027, suggesting the high-pricing environment will persist. Sandisk's financial performance reflects this market volatility. The company reported non-GAAP earnings of $7.55 per share for the first half of fiscal 2026, representing a 150% year-over-year increase. Management has provided a bullish third-quarter guidance of $13 per share, while analysts project year-end earnings to reach $44.50 per share. Looking ahead to fiscal 2027, consensus estimates suggest a 2.5-fold increase in earnings, potentially reaching $114.38 per share. This growth is predicated on the continued shortage of flash storage, which industry analysts believe could persist into 2028, providing a long-term tailwind for the company's valuation.