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Macro Score 88 Neutral

DOJ Drops Criminal Probe into Fed Chair Powell; Markets Pivot to Warsh Succession

Apr 24, 2026 15:02 UTC
USD, US10Y, SPX
Short term

The Department of Justice has terminated its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This development has triggered a surge in prediction market bets regarding the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair.

  • DOJ terminates criminal investigation into Jerome Powell
  • Kalshi markets show increased betting on Kevin Warsh as successor
  • Removal of legal uncertainty provides short-term stability
  • Market now pricing in potential leadership transition timeline
  • Potential for increased volatility in USD and Treasury markets

The U.S. Department of Justice has officially announced the closure of its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, removing a significant legal cloud over the leadership of the nation's central bank. The resolution of the legal inquiry has immediately shifted market attention toward the future of the Federal Reserve's governorship. Traders are now aggressively pricing in the likelihood and timing of a leadership transition, viewing the legal clearance as a catalyst for a planned succession. According to data from the prediction market Kalshi, bets on the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair spiked following the DOJ announcement. Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, is widely regarded as a primary candidate to lead the institution. This development is expected to influence Treasury yields and U.S. Dollar volatility as investors weigh the potential policy shifts that would accompany a change in leadership. While the removal of legal uncertainty surrounding Powell provides short-term stability, the market's rapid pivot toward Warsh suggests that investors are preparing for a new monetary regime.

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