Brazil Bans Major Prediction Markets Over Gambling Concerns

Brazil's Ministry of Finance and the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel) have implemented a sweeping ban on 27 prediction market platforms. The move follows the issuance of Resolution 5.298 by the National Monetary Council (CMN), which reclassifies various prediction contracts as gambling rather than financial investments. The crackdown targets contracts tied to political, sporting, and entertainment events, which authorities argue operate outside the current legal framework. By restricting these activities, the government aims to curb household indebtedness and protect citizens from financial harm, particularly among families and students. Under the new rules, which take effect in early May, only contracts linked to objective economic indicators—such as inflation, exchange rates, commodity prices, and interest rates—will remain legal. These specific instruments will fall under strict financial market oversight to ensure stability. The ban affects a wide array of global and local players, including high-profile platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, and Fanatics Markets. Notably, Robinhood's forecasting feature is also among the blocked services. This action mirrors a growing global trend of tightening oversight on prediction markets. Similar restrictions have been implemented in France, Belgium, and the Netherlands, while the United States continues to face regulatory disputes between federal regulators and individual states.