Goldman Sachs Lifts Oil Price Forecasts Amid Strait of Hormuz Supply Shock

Goldman Sachs has revised its crude oil price outlook upward, citing "extreme" inventory draws resulting from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption of this critical maritime chokepoint has significantly tightened global supply, forcing a reassessment of price trajectories for the remainder of the year. In a research note released on April 27, analysts Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby raised the fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $90 per barrel, a notable increase from the previous estimate of $80. This adjustment is part of a broader series of revisions, with the bank also hiking its price forecasts for the current second quarter and the upcoming third quarter. The price hike is driven by the physical reality of dwindling stockpiles. As the closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists, the resulting inventory depletion is creating a bullish environment for crude prices, as markets struggle to find alternative supply routes for a significant portion of the world's oil. Market participants are now pricing in a higher floor for Brent crude as the geopolitical instability continues to threaten energy security. The revisions from Goldman Sachs signal a growing expectation that supply constraints will outweigh other macroeconomic headwinds in the near term.