Prediction Markets Target U.S. Perpetual Futures Expansion

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly eyeing an expansion into perpetual futures, commonly known as 'perps,' marking a strategic push into one of the most volatile segments of the cryptocurrency ecosystem. These futures contracts, which lack expiration dates, have historically been the domain of offshore exchanges due to their high leverage—sometimes reaching 100x—which previously deterred U.S. regulatory approval. The scale of the opportunity is immense. In 2025, nominal trading volume for perpetual futures reached $61.7 trillion, representing a 29% increase over 2024. This volume significantly dwarfs spot crypto trading, which reached $18.6 trillion in 2025. Currently, perps account for more than 70% of all volume on centralized crypto exchanges, highlighting the massive liquidity shift toward leveraged products. This expansion coincides with a shift in regulatory stance. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has indicated it is working to onshore 'true perpetual derivatives' to ensure they can flourish within centralized and decentralized markets under appropriate safeguards. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig noted that previous administrations failed to create a pathway for these markets to exist domestically. However, the move brings potential risks. Analysts warn that the introduction of perps to the U.S. could heighten asset volatility. Because these contracts often utilize auto-deleveraging systems, they can trigger liquidation cascades that lead to sharp, single-day price drawdowns. While incumbents like Coinbase and Robinhood are already integrating prediction market features, the entry of specialized prediction platforms into the perps space creates a new competitive front in the fight for the retail trader's portfolio.