Goldman Sachs Raises Brent Oil Forecast to $90 Amid Hormuz Instability

Goldman Sachs has increased its price projections for Brent crude, now forecasting the benchmark to reach $90 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026. The adjustment reflects a deteriorating outlook for supply stability in the Persian Gulf. Daan Struyven, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, indicated that the firm has pushed back its expectations for the normalization of Gulf exports. The timeline for recovery has been shifted to the end of June, compared to the previous estimate of mid-May. The upward revision is primarily driven by ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint for global energy shipments. Goldman's analysis suggests a slower recovery for production levels within the region than previously anticipated. While the firm maintains that a global recession is not the base-case scenario, such an outcome remains a possibility under a 'severely adverse' scenario where the strait remains largely closed. Traders should anticipate heightened volatility in energy futures as the market prices in these supply constraints.