Prediction Market Volumes Surge as Retail Engagement Shifts to Continuous Trading

Prediction markets are evolving into a primary onchain application, with monthly trading volumes reaching $25.7 billion in March. A joint report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket highlights that retail traders—defined as those trading less than $10,000—now account for over 80% of the total activity, even as broader digital asset market participation remains subdued. This growth represents a massive year-over-year increase. Supporting data from Dune Analytics shows March volumes at $23.7 billion, a stark contrast to the $1.9 billion recorded during the same period last year. The surge suggests that these platforms are becoming more than just tools for high-profile event speculation. The report identifies a fundamental behavioral shift in how users interact with these markets. Rather than focusing on single, high-impact events, users are returning more frequently across multiple categories. Average active days per user nearly quadrupled during the first quarter, rising from 2.5 to 9.9 days. In terms of sector performance, sports betting has emerged as the dominant category, generating $10.1 billion in quarterly volume. Political markets followed with $5 billion in activity, reflecting sustained interest in global governance and electoral outcomes. Industry forecasts suggest annual volumes could reach $240 billion this year, with long-term projections eyeing the trillion-dollar mark. This momentum is reflected in the valuations of sector leaders like Polymarket and Kalshi, both of which are reportedly seeking capital at valuations exceeding $20 billion. To sustain this trajectory, platforms are prioritizing market integrity. Polymarket has updated its governance framework to combat insider trading and market manipulation, coinciding with growing acceptance from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).