Microsoft Set to Report Q3 Earnings Amid AI Monetization Scrutiny

Microsoft (MSFT) is scheduled to release its fiscal third-quarter earnings after the market closes today, with Wall Street closely monitoring the company's ability to translate artificial intelligence investments into sustained revenue growth. Analysts are forecasting earnings per share of $4.06 on revenue of approximately $81.4 billion. The primary focus remains on the Azure cloud division, which management previously guided for constant currency revenue growth between 37% and 38%. This growth is seen as a direct proxy for the financial benefits Microsoft is deriving from the AI boom, as companies utilize Azure for training and deploying large-scale models. A critical point of interest is the evolving relationship with OpenAI. While Microsoft remains the primary cloud partner through 2030, a revised agreement now allows OpenAI to utilize other cloud providers and removes the exclusivity of intellectual property licensing for certain models. This shift is particularly noteworthy given that 45% of the Azure backlog is currently attributed to OpenAI. Additionally, the market is seeking evidence of broader adoption for the Copilot AI assistant. Previous disclosures showed 15 million paid seats—a small fraction of the 450 million Microsoft 365 subscribers—which previously led to investor disappointment. A strong performance or optimistic guidance on AI traction could trigger a recovery for the stock, which remains down roughly 10% for the year following a volatile start to 2026.