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Macro Score 42 Bearish

US Treasury Raises Series I Bond Rate to 4.26% Amid Inflationary Pressure

Apr 30, 2026 14:07 UTC
CL=F, US10Y
Short term

The U.S. Treasury has increased the composite rate for Series I savings bonds to 4.26% for the period ending October 31. The adjustment follows a notable jump in consumer prices linked to geopolitical instability.

  • New composite rate of 4.26% effective May 1 to Oct 31
  • Fixed rate held steady at 0.90%
  • Variable rate increased to 3.34% reflecting higher CPI
  • March CPI rose to 3.3% following the start of the Iran war
  • Oil price surges expected to add 0.6% to annual inflation

The U.S. Department of the Treasury has announced that newly purchased Series I bonds will earn an annual interest rate of 4.26% from May 1 through October 31, 2026. This marks an increase from the 4.03% yield offered through April 30. The new composite rate consists of a 3.34% variable component based on inflation data and a 0.90% fixed rate. While the fixed rate remains unchanged from the October announcement, the variable portion has climbed as inflation trends upward. Recent economic data highlights the drivers behind this shift. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped to 3.3% in March 2026, up from 2.4% in February. This acceleration is the first CPI release since the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28, which has significantly increased gasoline and other consumer costs. Market analysts expect these geopolitical tensions to continue weighing on prices. According to a recent Fed Survey, high oil prices are projected to push overall inflation up by 0.6 percentage points this year. While I bonds are primarily used by retail investors seeking risk-free assets, the rising rates underscore a broader environment of persistent inflationary pressure.

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