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Macro Score 55 Bearish

France Maintains Growth Outlook Despite First-Quarter Stagnation

Apr 30, 2026 17:01 UTC
EUR=, CAC
Medium term

Finance Minister Roland Lescure has declined to lower economic growth forecasts despite a flat first quarter. The stagnation is attributed to a combination of geopolitical tensions and temporary domestic factors.

  • Q1 GDP showed zero growth
  • Government growth forecasts remain unchanged
  • Exports and domestic demand both declined
  • Iran war cited as a primary external pressure
  • Mild weather reduced energy sector contributions

The French government is standing by its economic growth projections despite new data showing the economy failed to expand during the first three months of the year. Finance Minister Roland Lescure confirmed on Thursday that the administration will not revise its forecasts downward despite the surprising stagnation. Lescure attributed the lack of growth to a confluence of headwinds, most notably weakened domestic demand and a decline in export volumes. The Minister specifically highlighted the geopolitical impact of the conflict in Iran as a contributing factor to the economic slowdown. Beyond geopolitical strife, the government pointed to several temporary domestic drags. These include a strategic dip in public investment occurring ahead of local elections, as well as a decrease in energy demand resulting from unseasonably mild temperatures during the quarter. The decision to maintain forecasts suggests the administration views these headwinds as transitory rather than structural. However, the combination of falling exports and sluggish internal demand may raise concerns among investors regarding the short-term resilience of the Eurozone's second-largest economy.

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