Qatar's energy minister has cautioned that global liquefied natural gas supply could face a critical shortfall by 2030 due to rising AI-driven demand and insufficient investment in new infrastructure. The Gulf state, already the world’s largest LNG exporter, highlighted the growing strain on energy systems from digitalization.
- Global LNG supply deficit projected at 150 million tons annually by 2030
- AI data centers to consume 50 TWh of electricity annually by 2030
- Required global LNG investment: $1.2 trillion through 2035
- Only 30% of planned LNG projects have secured financing
- Qatar’s North Field Expansion to raise capacity to 126 million tons/year by 2026
- Supply shortfall could hit 40 million tons/year by 2030 despite new projects
Qatar has issued a stark warning about a looming global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shortage, projecting a supply deficit of up to 150 million tons annually by 2030. This forecast comes amid rapidly escalating demand from artificial intelligence data centers, which are expected to consume an additional 50 terawatt-hours of electricity per year by 2030—equivalent to the current annual power use of 40 million households. The country's energy minister noted that current investment in LNG production and export facilities remains below the 1.2 trillion USD needed through 2035 to meet projected demand. The shortfall is driven by two key factors: the energy intensity of AI infrastructure, which relies heavily on natural gas-fired power for reliability, and a prolonged pause in new LNG project development. Despite Qatar's own expansion plans—such as the $28 billion North Field Expansion project, which will boost its export capacity to 126 million tons per year by 2026—global investment lags significantly. Analysts estimate that only 30% of planned LNG projects have secured financing, with many delayed due to regulatory hurdles and shifting climate policies in Western markets. The consequences could ripple across energy markets, particularly in Asia and Europe, where power grids are increasingly dependent on flexible LNG imports. Countries like Japan, South Korea, and Germany may face higher volatility in energy prices during winter peaks if supply constraints materialize. Meanwhile, exporters such as Australia and the United States are accelerating projects, but their capacity additions are projected to fall short of demand growth by nearly 40 million tons per year by 2030.