U.S. mortgage and refinance interest rates climbed sharply on December 6, 2025, following the release of inflation data that exceeded forecasts. The spike in Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year note, reflects renewed concerns about persistent inflation and delayed Fed rate cuts.
- 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.42% on December 6, 2025
- 10-year Treasury yield increased to 4.89% following inflation report
- Refinance rate hit 7.61%, the highest since mid-2023
- Core inflation at 3.3%, above the 3.0% forecast
- TLT declined 1.7%, reflecting bond market repricing
- SPY dropped 0.4% as financials and housing sectors faced headwinds
Mortgage interest rates rose across major loan types on December 6, 2025, as fresh inflation data fueled market anxiety about the Federal Reserve’s timing for rate cuts. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 7.42%, up 11 basis points from the previous day, while the 15-year fixed rate reached 6.68%, a 10-basis-point increase. Refinance rates followed suit, with the average 30-year refinance rate rising to 7.61%, marking the highest level since mid-2023. The uptick in borrowing costs was driven by a stronger-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed year-over-year inflation at 3.8%, surpassing the 3.5% median forecast. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, came in at 3.3%, also above expectations. These figures intensified speculation that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for longer than previously projected. As inflation pressures persisted, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to 4.89%, up from 4.78% the prior day. The movement in long-dated Treasuries had a direct ripple effect on mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are closely tied to Treasury benchmarks. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) declined 1.7%, reflecting investor sentiment shifting toward higher duration risk and reduced demand for long-term fixed-income assets. The broader market reacted with caution. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) edged down 0.4% as investors reassessed the economic outlook, with financial stocks under pressure due to the rising cost of capital. Homebuyers and refinancers face tighter affordability, potentially slowing housing market activity in early 2026. Lenders are now adjusting loan pricing, and some originators have paused promotional offers in anticipation of continued volatility. The implications extend beyond individual borrowers. Real estate investment trusts (REITs), mortgage lenders, and fixed-income fund managers are recalibrating their portfolios amid revised expectations for monetary policy. With inflation data now pointing to sustained pressure, rate cuts are likely delayed into Q2 2026, according to market-based pricing.