Macy’s Inc. (M) observed a notable change in shopper behavior ahead of the 2025 holiday season, with increased demand for value-oriented products and earlier purchase timing. The shift signals evolving consumer priorities as inflationary pressures persist.
- 17% YoY increase in transactions for value-oriented and clearance categories at Macy’s
- 9% decline in average order value across Macy’s digital and in-store channels
- Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT) reporting similar trends in value-driven traffic and lower average spend
- JWN (JW) saw a 12% drop in same-store sales, highlighting pressure on luxury retail
- Macy’s digital traffic rose 22% week-over-week in early November, driven by early promotions
- Shift toward earlier holiday shopping may reflect supply chain concerns and inflationary pressures
Macy’s reported a 17% year-over-year increase in transactions for its lower-priced private-label and clearance categories during the first two weeks of November, indicating a strategic pivot by shoppers toward cost-conscious options. This trend coincides with a 9% decline in average order value across the company’s digital and in-store channels, reflecting a broader shift toward smaller, more frequent purchases. The data underscores growing pressure on discretionary spending as inflation remains elevated, even as holiday sales remain a critical revenue driver for retailers. The shift in customer behavior at Macy’s is not isolated. Comparable store sales at Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT) also showed a similar pattern in late November, with value-oriented merchandise and discount promotions driving traffic. Meanwhile, luxury retailer JWN (JW) reported a 12% drop in same-store sales, suggesting that premium product categories are under greater strain. These patterns collectively signal a bifurcated holiday shopping environment: consumers are prioritizing affordability and deals over brand prestige. Analysts note that the early surge in clearance sales—typically seen in late December—may indicate shoppers are accelerating their holiday purchases to avoid potential supply chain delays. Macy’s digital traffic rose 22% week-over-week during the first weekend of November, driven largely by promotions on essentials and seasonal items. The company has responded by expanding its early-bird discount campaigns and reallocating inventory toward high-turnover, lower-margin products. Market participants are closely monitoring these trends, as they could influence fourth-quarter earnings forecasts for major retailers. A sustained shift toward value-driven shopping may pressure margins, particularly for department stores and specialty retailers with high fixed costs. Investors are reassessing holiday season outlooks, with shares of M, TGT, and WMT experiencing moderate volatility in early December trading.