Investors turn attention to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and a flurry of major tech earnings, with SPX and NDX expected to react sharply. Key moves in USD, EURUSD, and UST yields may follow.
- Fed rate decision expected to hold rates at 5.25%-5.50%
- 10-year UST yield at 4.27%, sensitive to Fed guidance
- AAPL projected revenue: $94.1B, up 5% YoY
- MSFT forecasted revenue: $73.2B, Azure up 22% YoY
- TSLA expected deliveries: 1.8M units in Q4
- NDX near 22,000; SPX within 1% of record highs
Markets are focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision, widely anticipated to hold rates steady at 5.25%-5.50% amid persistent inflation concerns. Traders are monitoring the dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting statement for clues on the timing of potential rate cuts, with futures pricing in a 68% probability of a hike in 2026. The outcome will influence UST yields, with the 10-year benchmark currently trading at 4.27%, and could trigger volatility in EURUSD, currently at 1.0720. This week’s corporate earnings calendar features Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA), each reporting results with expectations for strong revenue growth. AAPL is forecast to report $94.1 billion in revenue, a 5% increase year-over-year, driven by iPhone 16 demand and services growth. MSFT is projected to post $73.2 billion in revenue, with Azure cloud revenue expected to rise 22% annually. TSLA’s earnings will be closely watched for signs of recovery in vehicle deliveries, with analysts expecting 1.8 million units shipped in Q4. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq-100 (NDX) are both within 1% of all-time highs, making them sensitive to macro and earnings surprises. A beat in tech earnings could push the NDX above 22,000, while a dovish Fed stance might lift equities and press down on the USD. Conversely, stronger-than-expected inflation data could reinforce rate-hike hawkishness, weighing on growth stocks and lifting safe-haven demand. Energy and consumer sectors are also watching for macro signals, as higher real yields could pressure capital-intensive industries. Financials, particularly regional banks, remain exposed to interest rate sensitivity, with the cost of funds still elevated. Overall, the week’s events could set the tone for equity positioning into 2026.