China’s benchmark coal price for power stations is projected to hold steady at 980 yuan per metric ton in 2026, according to updated market projections. The stability signals reduced volatility in energy input costs for thermal power generators.
- Benchmark power-station coal price projected at 980 yuan per metric ton for 2026
- Stability reflects balanced supply, demand, and government pricing mechanisms
- CNI, 600088.SS, and 601005.SS are key beneficiaries of predictable input costs
- Reduced volatility supports long-term planning for utilities and coal producers
- Favorable for margin predictability but may limit capital expenditure momentum
China’s benchmark coal price for power stations is expected to remain unchanged at 980 yuan per metric ton in 2026, reflecting a sustained period of price stability amid shifting domestic supply and demand dynamics. This figure, widely referenced in power procurement contracts, serves as a critical input for thermal electricity producers across the country. The forecasted flat trajectory follows a 2025 average of 980 yuan, suggesting that coal pricing mechanisms have reached a new equilibrium. This stability is attributed to balanced coal output from major producers, steady demand from state-owned utilities, and government intervention through strategic stockpiling and pricing controls. The consensus implies that coal miners and power generators can plan capital expenditures with greater predictability. Key players in the sector, including China National Coal Group (CNI) and large power producers such as Shenhua Energy (600088.SS) and China Power Investment (601005.SS), are likely to see stabilized operating margins. These firms rely on the benchmark for pricing long-term contracts, and a stable benchmark reduces the risk of cost overruns or revenue shortfalls. Market participants are adjusting investment strategies accordingly, with utilities favoring maintenance over expansion in the near term. The flat price outlook may also dampen speculative trading in coal futures, particularly on the China Energy Futures Exchange.