Nvidia’s stock surged after former President Donald Trump signaled approval for expanded semiconductor exports to China, reopening a critical market. The move could restore up to $8 billion in quarterly revenue previously lost due to export restrictions.
- Nvidia previously estimated $8 billion in quarterly revenue lost due to China export restrictions
- Trump’s reported support for lifting restrictions could restore access to a major AI chip market
- The move may add up to $32 billion in annual revenue if sustained over four quarters
- AMD and TSMC benefit from broader market access and increased demand for high-performance chips
- SMIC may see boosted demand for complementary technologies and local manufacturing partnerships
- Semiconductor stocks experienced immediate valuation gains, with NVDA’s market cap rising over $100 billion
Nvidia shares climbed sharply following reports that former President Donald Trump has endorsed lifting restrictions on sales of advanced AI chips to China, marking a pivotal shift in U.S. tech policy. The decision, if formalized, would directly address a major constraint on Nvidia’s growth, as the company had previously estimated losing $8 billion in quarterly revenue due to export controls on its AI chips—particularly its H100 and B100 series—targeted at Chinese customers. The potential revenue recovery represents a significant upside for Nvidia, with analysts noting that the Chinese market accounts for roughly 20% of global AI chip demand. Restoring access to this segment could accelerate the company’s revenue trajectory, especially as demand for high-performance computing grows in data centers and generative AI applications. The approval also benefits AMD, which has been expanding its presence in China with its MI300 series, and semiconductor manufacturers like TSMC, whose foundry capacity supports both firms. SMIC, China’s largest domestic chipmaker, stands to gain indirectly as increased access to U.S. AI chips may stimulate demand for complementary technologies and local supply chain integration. The shift could also influence long-term investment strategies by Western tech firms eyeing China’s expanding AI infrastructure, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Market participants are now reassessing valuation models for semiconductor stocks, with NVDA’s market cap gaining over $100 billion in a single day. Investors are weighing the implications of policy reversals on global tech supply chains and the sustainability of such market access under future administrations.