Gold prices stabilized near all-time highs following a surge driven by global macro uncertainty, as investors pivot focus toward anticipated U.S. monetary policy shifts in 2026. The XAU/USD benchmark traded at $2,435 per ounce, while the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) posted modest gains, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of key rate decisions.
- XAU/USD held at $2,435 per ounce after briefly reaching $2,450
- GLD recorded $1.2 billion in net inflows over two weeks
- U.S. 10-year yield (US10Y) rose to 4.21% following inflation data
- Central bank gold purchases totaled 320 tons in Q3 2025
- Market now prices a 68% chance of a U.S. rate cut in 2026
- China and India saw 18% year-on-year rise in gold imports through November
Gold halted its upward trajectory after briefly surpassing $2,450 per ounce, marking a new record high on global concerns about inflation persistence and trade tensions. The XAU/USD pair settled at $2,435, showing minimal fluctuation over the session as traders digested recent developments in U.S.-Japan trade negotiations. The stabilization comes despite continued strong demand from central banks, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, where gold reserves increased by 320 tons in Q3 2025, according to official data. The shift in investor attention toward U.S. interest rate policy for 2026 has become the dominant driver of gold’s recent behavior. Market pricing now reflects a 68% probability of a rate cut in the second half of 2026, down from 82% in October, signaling growing expectations of a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve. This shift is reflected in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (US10Y), which edged up to 4.21% following stronger-than-expected inflation data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), a major ETF tracking gold prices, saw net inflows of $1.2 billion in the past two weeks, indicating institutional confidence in gold as a hedge against prolonged monetary policy uncertainty. Meanwhile, physical demand in China and India remained robust, with import volumes rising 18% year-on-year through November 2025. Market participants now await the December Federal Reserve meeting and the release of updated economic projections in January 2026, which are expected to provide clearer guidance on the timing and pace of potential rate reductions. A dovish stance could reignite gold’s rally, while a more hawkish pivot may pressure prices below $2,400.