A recent policy reversal by former President Donald Trump allowing Nvidia to export advanced AI chips to China has spurred concern among analysts, who warn it could accelerate Beijing's lead in artificial intelligence. The move, if implemented, would directly impact global semiconductor dynamics and U.S. technological dominance.
- Trump announced potential relaxation of export controls allowing Nvidia to sell H200 and B100-class chips to China.
- H200 chips deliver up to 1.3 exaflops of AI performance, critical for large-scale model training.
- Analysts project China could shorten AI development timelines by up to 18 months with unrestricted access.
- Nvidia (NVDA) shares rose 3.7% on pre-market trading; Intel (INTC) declined 1.2% amid margin concerns.
- TSMC (TSM) and AMD (AMD) saw modest gains, reflecting broader market optimism about expanded chip sales.
In a sudden policy shift, former U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Nvidia could resume sales of its next-generation AI chips—specifically the H200 and future B100-class models—to China. This announcement, made during a campaign event in late November 2025, signals a potential retreat from the stringent export controls instituted under the Biden administration to curb China’s access to high-performance computing technology. The H200, currently restricted to certain markets, delivers up to 1.3 exaflops of AI performance and is designed for large language model training. Analysts estimate that unrestricted access could allow Chinese tech firms to shorten their AI development timelines by up to 18 months, significantly narrowing the gap with U.S. leaders. This would particularly benefit companies like Baidu, Alibaba, and Huawei, which rely heavily on advanced silicon for their generative AI initiatives. Market reactions were immediate: Nvidia (NVDA) shares rose 3.7% in pre-market trading, while AMD (AMD) and TSMC (TSM) saw minor upticks, reflecting investor optimism over expanded revenue potential. However, Intel (INTC) shares dipped 1.2%, as some analysts questioned whether increased competition in China could pressure U.S. semiconductor margins and R&D investment. The move also raises questions about the long-term viability of the U.S. export control regime, now under political scrutiny. The implications extend beyond corporate performance. If China gains unfettered access to cutting-edge AI chips, it could accelerate advancements in defense, surveillance, and autonomous systems—areas where AI is increasingly strategic. This development intensifies geopolitical risk in the semiconductor sector and may prompt reassessments by U.S. allies seeking to align export policies with national security interests.