SPS Commerce (SPSC) is seeing a balanced mix of analyst opinions ahead of 2026, with a growing divergence in long-term outlooks. The split sentiment underscores uncertainty around revenue growth and profitability trajectories despite strong recent performance.
- SPSC has 11 'Buy' or 'Outperform' ratings, 10 'Hold', and 5 'Sell' or 'Underperform' ratings.
- Analysts project a 14% CAGR in revenue growth through 2026 for SPS Commerce.
- Non-GAAP operating margins declined 5% YoY in Q3 2025, a concern for bearish analysts.
- Average 12-month price target for SPSC is $86.20, with a range from $72 to $103.
- Stock has traded between $78 and $89 over the past year.
- Earnings report in early 2026 expected to influence sentiment shift.
SPS Commerce (SPSC) has drawn a range of analyst assessments as market participants prepare for the company’s 2026 outlook. Recent evaluations show a near-even split among analysts, with 11 holding 'Buy' or 'Outperform' ratings, 10 maintaining 'Hold' positions, and 5 assigning 'Sell' or 'Underperform' designations. This balanced distribution reflects a lack of consensus on the company’s ability to sustain momentum in the enterprise software space. The divergence centers on expectations for revenue growth and margin expansion. Analysts projecting strong outcomes cite SPS Commerce’s expanding footprint in cloud-based supply chain integration, particularly within mid-market retail and logistics sectors. One target price model projects a 14% compound annual growth rate in revenue through 2026, based on current contract renewals and new client acquisitions. In contrast, bearish analysts point to rising competitive pressures from larger SaaS platforms and slower-than-expected adoption in international markets, citing a 5% YoY decline in non-GAAP operating margins in the third quarter of 2025 as a warning sign. SPSC’s stock has traded within a $78 to $89 range over the past 12 months, with recent activity suggesting cautious investor positioning. The average 12-month price target across analysts sits at $86.20, implying modest upside from current levels. However, the wide dispersion—ranging from $72 to $103—underscores the uncertainty surrounding the company’s strategic path. Market participants, particularly institutional investors and fund managers tracking mid-cap technology stocks, are monitoring the sentiment shift closely. A change in consensus could influence portfolio allocations, especially in growth-oriented tech baskets. The upcoming earnings report in early 2026 may act as a catalyst for reevaluation of current outlooks.