Stifel Reaffirms Buy Rating on Hillman Solutions as Home Improvement Sector Shows Signs of Recovery

Stifel maintains a Buy rating on Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN), citing improving fundamentals in the home improvement market. The firm highlights a projected 8% year-over-year revenue growth in the sector for 2026, supporting HLMN’s mid-cap industrial position.

Stifel has reasserted its Buy rating on Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN), emphasizing the company’s strategic advantage in the rebounding home improvement sector. The firm points to a projected 8% increase in U.S. home improvement spending for 2026, driven by rising homeowner renovation activity and increased demand for building materials. This recovery is expected to benefit HLMN, which serves as a key distributor of fasteners, hardware, and specialty building products across North America. The company’s diversified product portfolio and strong distribution network position it to capture incremental demand, particularly in the residential construction and repair segments. Stifel notes that HLMN’s adjusted EBITDA margins have stabilized at 18.7% in the last fiscal quarter, up from 16.3% in the same period a year prior, signaling improved operational efficiency amid a challenging macro environment. HLMN’s stock has outperformed the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector Index by 12 percentage points over the past 12 months, reflecting growing investor confidence in its cyclical rebound thesis. Analysts believe the company could achieve double-digit organic growth in 2026 if current housing market trends persist, especially with mortgage rates stabilizing and home equity levels holding firm. Traders and institutional investors focused on mid-cap consumer cyclical stocks are closely monitoring HLMN as a proxy for broader housing market health. The stock’s performance may also influence sector rotation ahead of the upcoming earnings season, with expectations for stronger guidance from HLMN in early 2026.