Gold ownership among American households remains near historic lows, prompting Goldman Sachs to forecast further upside in gold prices. The firm highlights a structural imbalance between supply and domestic demand, with XAU/USD poised for continued strength.
- Less than 15% of U.S. households own physical gold, near historic lows
- XAU/USD has risen over 12% year-to-date, surpassing $2,300/oz
- GLD holds over $85 billion in assets, IAU holds $15 billion
- Gold ownership gap suggests latent demand could drive price increases
- A 10% rise in U.S. gold ownership could generate over $100 billion in new demand
- Gold ETFs are seeing modest inflows, but remain below prior cycle highs
Gold prices in the United States are facing upward momentum as ownership levels among households remain exceptionally low, according to Goldman Sachs. Despite the metal’s role as a traditional store of value, data indicates that less than 15% of U.S. households hold physical gold, a figure that has held steady since 2020 and is well below historical averages. This scarcity of domestic ownership creates a latent demand that could drive prices higher as investor interest grows. The firm points to the broader investment landscape, noting that gold-backed ETFs such as GLD and IAU are seeing modest inflows, yet aggregate holdings remain far below peak levels from prior economic cycles. GLD, with over $85 billion in assets under management, and IAU, tracking the IShares Gold Trust with $15 billion in AUM, have not experienced the surge in buying seen during previous periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. This under-participation reflects a broader market gap, with U.S. investors increasingly favoring equities and bonds over precious metals. Gold futures and spot prices, tracked by the XAU/USD benchmark, have already risen over 12% year-to-date, breaching $2,300 per ounce in late 2025. Goldman’s research suggests that the low ownership base could lead to a significant re-rating of gold, particularly if inflation pressures resurface or geopolitical tensions escalate. The institution estimates that a 10% increase in U.S. household gold ownership could translate to over $100 billion in additional demand, exerting strong upward pressure on prices. Market participants, especially those in commodities and asset allocation, are closely monitoring these dynamics. ETF flows, central bank buying patterns, and macroeconomic indicators are being evaluated for signs of a shift in investor behavior. Any sustained increase in gold demand from U.S. retail investors could accelerate price gains, benefiting both physical gold and gold-linked financial instruments.