Rivian Automotive Stock Forecast: Analysts Project Range of $40 to $65 by Late 2026

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) is projected to see its stock price fluctuate between $40 and $65 per share by December 2026, according to a composite of analyst estimates and market models. This range reflects cautious optimism tempered by persistent execution risks and high operating costs. The company’s recent delivery figures, which averaged 18,000 units per quarter in Q3 2025, remain below initial projections, contributing to downward pressure on valuation expectations. The outlook is shaped by key operational benchmarks: Rivian reported a net loss of $1.1 billion in 2024, with cash burn reaching $320 million in the third quarter. However, the company has made strides in reducing vehicle production costs by 14% year-over-year, a development seen as critical to long-term sustainability. Additionally, Rivian’s commercial van segment, which includes contracts with Amazon, generated $1.8 billion in revenue in 2024 and is anticipated to grow 20% annually through 2026. Market participants are closely monitoring the company’s ability to scale production at its Illinois plant, which currently operates at 65% capacity utilization. Analysts note that achieving 85% utilization by mid-2026 would be a key catalyst for upward revisions in price targets. Meanwhile, the broader EV sector faces headwinds from slowing U.S. federal incentives and intensified competition from Tesla (TSLA), Ford (F), and emerging Chinese EV brands. Investors in RIVN should also consider the implications of recent capital raises, including a $750 million equity offering in November 2025, which has extended the company’s runway to at least 2027. Despite these measures, the stock remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic trends, battery supply chain stability, and revisions in consumer demand forecasts.