The final full trading week of 2025 brings critical economic reports and high-profile corporate earnings, shaping investor sentiment as markets close out the year. Key data points and company results will influence expectations for monetary policy and market direction in 2026.
- December U.S. non-farm payrolls forecast at 175,000 with unemployment rate expected at 4.1%
- Apple (AAPL) projected revenue of $98.7 billion and 12% growth in iPhone sales
- Amazon (AMZN) forecast to report $148.9 billion in Q4 revenue, with AWS up 15% year-over-year
- Core PCE inflation expected at 2.8%, a key indicator for Federal Reserve policy
- S&P 500 has gained 18% year-to-date, with elevated volatility ahead of year-end
- Options markets indicate a 30% chance of a 1% or greater index move in next five days
Wall Street’s last full week of 2025 is set to deliver a concentrated wave of economic and corporate data that could define the year’s closing momentum. Investors are closely tracking the December U.S. jobs report, expected to show a non-farm payroll increase of 175,000, with the unemployment rate projected to hold steady at 4.1%. This data will be pivotal in assessing the Federal Reserve’s next move, particularly as inflation pressures remain a central concern despite recent moderation. Earnings season reaches a peak with major tech and consumer companies reporting. Apple Inc. (AAPL) is scheduled to release its fiscal Q1 results on December 16, with analysts forecasting $98.7 billion in revenue and a 12% year-over-year increase in iPhone unit sales. Similarly, Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) is expected to report fourth-quarter revenue of $148.9 billion, driven by strong cloud services growth in AWS, which is projected to post a 15% year-over-year revenue rise. These results will offer insight into consumer spending resilience and corporate pricing power amid elevated interest rates. Market participants are also monitoring the release of the November personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A core PCE reading of 2.8% year-over-year would confirm persistent inflationary pressures, potentially delaying any rate cuts. Conversely, a drop to 2.5% could signal a shift toward a dovish policy stance in early 2026. The S&P 500 has gained 18% year-to-date, but volatility remains elevated ahead of the year-end, with options markets pricing in a 30% probability of a 1% or greater move in the index over the next five days.