An analysis of broad-market ETFs like SPY and VTI suggests potential long-term wealth accumulation, but claims of 'multimillionaire' outcomes with 'almost zero effort' lack empirical support and risk misleading retail investors.
- SPY has delivered ~9.8% average annual return over the past 20 years
- VTI has returned approximately 10.2% annually over the same period
- A $500 monthly investment in either ETF since 2005 could grow to ~$3.2 million by 2025
- Both ETFs have low expense ratios: SPY at 0.09%, VTI at 0.03%
- Historical performance is not a guarantee of future results
- Long-term success requires more than passive investment—risk management and discipline are critical
A growing number of retail investors are drawn to widely held ETFs such as SPY and VTI, attracted by narratives of effortless wealth generation. These funds track major indices—the S&P 500 and the CRSP US Total Market Index—offering diversified exposure across large-, mid-, and small-cap U.S. equities. Proponents argue that consistent, long-term investment in such vehicles can compound returns significantly over time. Over the past 20 years, SPY has delivered an average annual return of approximately 9.8%, while VTI has returned about 10.2% per year. Assuming a $500 monthly investment starting in 2005, an investor would have accrued roughly $3.2 million by 2025, excluding taxes and fees. However, such projections rely on historical performance and do not guarantee future results, especially given market volatility, inflation, and shifting economic conditions. The appeal of these ETFs lies in their low expense ratios—SPY at 0.09% and VTI at 0.03%—and ease of access via brokerage platforms. Yet, the notion that passive investing in these instruments alone will generate multimillionaire wealth without strategic planning, risk management, or periodic rebalancing is misleading. Market downturns, such as the 2008 financial crisis or the 2022 bear market, can erode gains significantly over short periods. Ultimately, while SPY and VTI represent core components of many diversified portfolios, their performance should be evaluated within a broader financial context. Investors should consider asset allocation, tax implications, and personal risk tolerance rather than relying on speculative headlines promising effortless riches.